Ib tsib-feeb nyeem rau cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov kws tsim khoom
Yog tias koj ua raws li tus nqi tooj liab txawm tias tsis zoo, koj paub tias ob lub hlis dhau los tau caij tsheb qus. Los ntawm kev khiav nrawm- mus rau Lub Ob Hlis thiab Lub Peb Hlis mus txog qhov rub rov qab peb pom lub lim tiam no, nws yooj yim kom tau txais whiplash.
Raws li niaj hnub no, Lub Plaub Hlis 24, COMEX tooj liab yav tom ntej tau ua lag luam ntawm kwv yees li $ 6.0150 ib phaus, nqis kwv yees li 11% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws ua ntej lub quarter tab sis tseem nce ntau dua 20% los ntawm qhov peb tau pib xyoo. LME peb-hli tooj liab yog hovering ze $9,670 ib tonne.
Cov lus nug kuv tau hnov los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yooj yim: peb mus qhov twg los ntawm no?
Es tsis txhob kwv yees, cia kuv taug kev los ntawm qhov ua tau tsav lub khw tam sim no - qhov zoo, qhov tsis zoo, thiab qhov tsis paub tseeb.
Ntu 1: Cov khoom siv sab nraud - tseem yog lub cim tseem ceeb
Yog tias muaj ib qho laj thawj tus nqi tooj liab tsis rov qab los ntawm $ 4.50 lossis $ 5.00, nws yog khoom. Plain thiab yooj yim.
Kuv cov zis tau poob siab rau ob xyoos ncaj. Xyoo no yuav tsum yog xyoo rov qab los, tab sis txog tam sim no nws tseem tsis tau tshwm sim. Qee qhov piv txwv:
Hauv Chile, kev tsim khoom tau tiaj tus me ntsis qis, nrog cov mines laus thiab cov teeb meem dej txuas ntxiv mus tom.
Hauv Peru, kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv zej zog tau cuam tshuam kev xa khoom tawm thiab mus. Tsuas yog thaum tej yam calm down, ib yam dab tsi tshwm sim.
Hauv Panama, lub mine loj uas kaw xyoo tas los tseem raug kaw, tsis muaj hnub rov pib dua.
Hauv tebchaws Africa, Zambia thiab DRC tab tom nce mus, tab sis kev thauj mus los - kev tsheb ciav hlau thiab chaw nres nkoj - tab tom tuav rov qab qhov kev xav tau.
Qhov tshwm sim? Concentrate kho thiab refining nqi (TC/RCs) tau poob mus rau theem uas ua rau lub neej nyuaj heev rau smelters. Thaum TC / RCs tsawg, nws txhais tau hais tias cov smelters sib tw nyuaj rau kev pub noj tsawg. Qhov kev nruj ntawd nws thiaj li ua haujlwm nws txoj hauv kev los ntawm cov saw hlau thiab qhia txog tus nqi siab dua rau cov khoom siv tooj liab tiav xws li cov raj, pas nrig, thiab xaim.
Cov khoom khib nyiab kuj tseem nruj hauv ntau thaj tsam. Nquag thaum thawj tus nqi tooj liab nce mus, cov khoom seem nce ntxiv thaum tib neeg ntxuav tawm cov yards thiab muag rau hauv kev lag luam siab. Qhov ntawd tsis tau tshwm sim ntau npaum li qhov xav tau rau lub sijhawm no, ib nrab vim tias kev lag luam kev lag luam tau softer thiab ib nrab vim tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tseem tab tom rov qab los ntawm xyoo tas los qeeb.
Cov kab hauv qab ntawm cov khoom siv: tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav muaj dej nyab ntawm cov hlau los tsoo lub khw txhua lub sijhawm sai sai. Lub nruj zoo li cov qauv, tsis raws caij nyoog.
Part 2: Qhov xav tau sab - qeeb tab sis tsis tawg
Tam sim no rau lwm sab ntawm daim ntawv teev npe.
Kev thov yog vim li cas tooj liab tsis thawb $ 7.00 lossis $ 8.00 tam sim no. Nws tsis txaus ntshai - Kuv xav kom meej txog qhov ntawd - tab sis nws tsis yog suab nrov.
Cia kuv rhuav nws los ntawm cheeb tsam thiab los ntawm sector.
Tuam Tshoj
Tuam Tshoj tseem suav rau ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev thov tooj liab, yog li dab tsi tshwm sim muaj teeb meem ntau dua li lwm yam.
Cov cuab yeej sector tseem yog ib tug luag. Lub tsev tshiab pib poob qis, thiab kev tsim kho kev ua haujlwm yog mos. Qhov ntawd cuam tshuam rau kev siv tooj liab hauv cov kav dej, xaim, HVAC, thiab fittings. Tsis muaj txoj kev nyob ib ncig ntawm qhov ntawd.
Tab sis lwm cov sectors tau khaws qee qhov slack. Daim phiaj kev nqis peev muaj zog. Lub xeev daim phiaj siv nyiaj rau kev hloov kho thiab nthuav dav, thiab qhov ntawd siv ntau cov tooj liab hauv cables thiab transformers. Lub zog tauj dua tshiab txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv - hnub ci thiab cua kev teeb tsa xav tau tooj liab nyob rau txhua theem, los ntawm cov kab sib txuas mus rau inverters mus rau transformers. Kev tsim tsheb hluav taws xob tseem tseem tab tom loj hlob, txawm tias qhov kev loj hlob tau txias los ntawm cov hnub vwm ntawm 2022-2023.
Yog li Suav xav tau daim duab sib xyaw. Khoom nqis, ntsuab zog nce. Net net, kev thov yog softer dua li ib xyoos dhau los tab sis tsis tawg.
Teb chaws Europe thiab North America
Hauv Tebchaws Europe, kev thov kev lag luam tau poob qis. Cov nqi hluav taws xob siab thiab kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb tau ua rau cov neeg tsim khoom ceev faj. Kev siv tooj liab hauv tsheb thiab kev tsim kho yog khov kho tab sis tsis muaj zog.
North America zoo dua me ntsis. Kev siv nyiaj txiag hauv tsev tau pib tshwm sim hauv cov haujlwm tiag tiag - kev hloov kho kab sib chaws, EV them cov tes hauj lwm, cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv. Cov chaw zov me nyuam tshwj xeeb yog qhov loj hlob ntawm kev thov tooj liab, ob qho tib si rau hauv cabling thiab rau cov khoom siv fais fab uas pub rau lawv. Tab sis kev tsim vaj tsev tau txias nrog cov paj laum ntau dua, thiab qhov ntawd txo qis kev siv tooj liab hauv cov kav dej hauv vaj tsev thiab xaim.
Yuav ua li cas rau restocking?
Ib qho txiaj ntsig zoo saib yog cov khoom muag qib thoob plaws cov khoom siv. Fabricators thiab manufacturers tau khiav lean ntawm tooj liab stocks rau lub hlis. Tsis muaj leej twg xav tuav cov khoom muag kim yog tias tus nqi yuav poob. Qhov ntawd ua rau kev txiav txim siab, tab sis nws kuj txhais tau hais tias cov saw hlau tau nthuav dav.
Yog tias qhov kev thov tau nce me ntsis - lossis yog tias tib neeg pib ntseeg cov nqi nce siab dua - cov khoom lag luam ntshiv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas thawb tus nqi sai. Qhov ntawd yog ib yam uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov.
COMEX tooj liab daim ntawv qhia txhua hnub qhia tau hais tias qhov kev nce siab ntxiv los ntawm lig 2025 mus rau thaum ntxov 2026, ua raws li qhov nruab nrab rub rov qab mus rau $ 6.00 / lb cheeb tsam.
Ntu 3: Daim duab qhia peb li cas
Saib ntawm ib daim duab -xyoo, ob peb yam sawv tawm.
Ua ntej, qhov kev nce siab los ntawm lig 2025 mus rau thaum ntxov 2026 tau nce siab. Tus nqi ze li ob npaug ntawm qhov qis. Qhov kev txav ntawd yuav luag ib txwm ua rau kev thim rov qab, tsuas yog los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig - noj thiab qaug zog.
Qhov thib ob, theem tam sim no nyob ib puag ncig $ 6.00 / lb tau txais kev txhawb nqa ua ntej. Nws ua raws li kev tawm tsam xyoo tas los thiab tom qab ntawd tau los ua kev txhawb nqa tom qab kev tawg. Qhov ntawd yog technically tseem ceeb.
Thib peb, ntim tau nqis los thaum lub sijhawm rub tawm tsis ntev los no. Qhov ntawd yog qhov ua tau zoo. Nws qhia tias kev muag khoom tsis txaus ntshai lossis dav -raws li. Nws zoo li cov txiaj ntsig ntau dua - noj thiab txoj haujlwm -squaring dua li maj nrawm rau qhov tawm.
Kuv tsis yog tus kws kos duab, tab sis kuv tau pom txaus ntawm cov voj voog no kom paub tias kev thim rov qab tom qab kev sib tw muaj zog yog qhov qub. Cov lus nug yog ib txwm saib seb qhov rub rov qab puas pom kev txhawb nqa lossis hloov mus rau qhov thim rov qab. Txog tam sim no, cov pov thawj taw qhia los txhawb kev tuav, tab sis peb yuav tsis paub meej rau lwm lub lim tiam lossis ob.
Ntu 4: Dab tsi tuaj yeem hloov daim duab
Ob peb yam tuaj yeem hloov pauv kev lag luam loj hauv lub lis piam tom ntej:
Qhov loj dua duas rally- Cov nyiaj daus las tau poob qis rau lub lis piam, uas tau txhawb nqa tooj liab. Yog hais tias tus duas tig ib ncig thiab sib sau ua ke, tooj liab yuav zoo li rub rov qab ntxiv, txhua yam sib npaug.
Fresh mine cuam tshuam- Nrog rau kev xa khoom nruj, txhua qhov kev cuam tshuam tshiab - kev tawm tsam, kev tso cai ncua sijhawm, teeb meem kev thauj mus los - tuaj yeem xa cov nqi rov qab mus rau qhov siab sai.
Kev tshaj tawm - hnub so xav tau nce siab hauv Suav teb- Yog tias cov neeg yuav khoom Suav rov qab los ntawm Hnub Ua Haujlwm Hnub Ua Haujlwm npaj rov ua dua, qhov ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau kev lag luam nruj ntxiv. Yog tias lawv nyob ntawm ib sab, cov nqi yuav qis dua.
US los yog European txoj cai txav-Txhua qhov kev tsim kho tshiab lossis kev tshaj tawm kev siv hluav taws xob huv yuav yog bullish. Ib qho kev lag luam ua tsov rog nce ntxiv yuav poob qis.
Ntu 5: Qhov no txhais li cas rau koj
Cia kuv xaus nrog ib yam dab tsi ua tau.
Yog tias koj tab tom hais txog ib qhov project uas yuav khiav mus rau ob peb lub hlis, kuv tseem yuav siv qhov kev xav ntawm tus nqi tooj liab - hais tias, $ 6.25 txog $ 6.50 ib phaus. Nws yog qhov zoo dua kom muaj kev nyab xeeb dua li yuav tsum tau rov qab mus rau tus neeg siv khoom thiab thov kom tus nqi nce ib nrab ntawm txoj haujlwm.
Yog tias koj tab tom yuav ze rau - lub sijhawm xa khoom, qhov rub rov qab tam sim no zoo li qhov chaw nkag tsim nyog. Tsis muaj leej twg paub qhov tseeb hauv qab yog, tab sis tos ntev dhau los ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo tias tus nqi rov qab thiab koj nco lub qhov rais.
Yog tias koj yog cov neeg siv khoom tsis tu ncua, koj twb paub lawm tias peb tsis xav txog tooj liab. Peb yuav lub cev hlau, peb tsim nws, thiab peb dhau los ntawm tus nqi lag luam. Peb txoj hauj lwm yog muab cov ntaub ntawv ncaj ncees rau koj ua lag luam thiab txhim khu kev xa khoom, tsis txhob kwv yees tag kis tus nqi. Qhov ntawd yog qhov peb tsom ntsoov rau.
Peb yuav saib dab tsi lub lim tiam tom ntej
Kev lag luam ntim thaum hnub so haujlwm Tuam Tshoj Hnub Ua Haujlwm (Tsib Hlis 1-5)
Txhua lub US dollar txav
LME thiab SHFE cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia
Xov xwm los ntawm cov mines loj hauv Chile thiab Peru
Peb cov khoom siv tooj liab
| Yam khoom | Common Specifications | Lub Sijhawm Lead | Tej kev siv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cov raj tooj liab | OD: 6mm - 219mm, Phab ntsa: 0.5mm - 5mm | 15-25 hnub | HVAC, tub yees, kav dej, cua kub exchangers |
| tooj liab rods | Dia: 6mm-100mm, Ntev: 1m-6m | 10-20 hnub | Machining, busbars, earthing rods, fasteners |
| Tooj hlau | Loj: 0.1mm-8mm | 10-20 hnub | Cables, transformers, motor windings, enamelled hlau |
| tooj liab strips | Thk: 0.2mm-3mm, Dav: 10mm-300mm | 15-25 hnub | Shielding, connectors, springs, transformer windings |
| tooj liab ntawv ci | Loj: 0.02mm-0.5mm | 15-25 hnub | Lithium{0}}Ion roj teeb, EMI tiv thaiv, hloov pauv hloov pauv |
| Kev cai fabrication | Ib daim duab lossis qauv | 20-30 hnub | Bushings, terminals, washers, gaskets, tshwj xeeb profiles |
Lub sij hawm txhuas yog kwv yees los ntawm kev lees paub kev txiav txim thiab yuav txawv raws li qhov ntau, cov khoom thauj tam sim no, thiab cov chaw xa khoom.Hu rau peb pawg neeg muag khoom kom ceev lossis sijhawm - thov kom ceev faj.
