Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 15, peb -hloov daim ntawv cog lus tooj liab ntawm London Hlau Txauv (LME) tau ntsib cov menyuam - kev caij nkoj caij nkoj - thawj zaug tsoo txhua qhov tshiab - lub sijhawm siab ntawm $ 11,952 ib tonne, tom qab ntawd luv luv ntawm kev txhawj xeeb txog AI peev npuas saum toj no, $ 1, ua ntej kaw. Nyob rau tib hnub, ib lub tuam txhab lag luam ua lag luam tau tshaj tawm qhov kev kwv yees tseem ceeb, nce nws 2026 tus nqi tooj liab lub hom phiaj los ntawm $ 10,650 txog $ 11,400 ib tonne, hais txog "txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua kom zoo tooj liab tariffs, nrog rau cov cai leaning ntxiv rau kom ntseeg tau tias muaj nqis peev rau downstream industries." Thaum "cov ntaub ntawv siab" ua tau raws li "lub koom haum bullishness," lub logic hauv qab "mid{15}}lub sij hawm rally" rau tooj liab yog qhov nyuaj dua thiab tsim nyog rau kev soj ntsuam tob dua li saum npoo - theem nqi volatility qhia.
Txoj Cai Kev Cia Siab "Rov Qab": Cov Nqi Se Delays Ua Qhov Tseem Ceeb, Tebchaws Asmeskas Kev Muag Khoom Ua Rau Lub Ntiaj Teb Tightness
Qhov kev txiav txim siab tseem ceeb tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub txhab nyiaj daim ntawv tshaj tawm yog nyob rau hauv nws txoj kev txhais ntawm lub sijhawm muaj peev xwm rau US tooj liab tariff txoj cai:
Cov xwm txheej tam sim no: Lub Yim Hli 2025, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau tshaj tawm 50% tariff rau seem tooj liab thiab tooj liab alloys, tab sis cov tooj liab refined yog "tsis suav nrog ib ntus," tshuav nyob rau hauv "kev tshuaj xyuas tsis tu ncua."
Kev kwv yees: Qhov tshwm sim ntawm 15% tariff ntawm refined tooj liab tau tshaj tawm nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026 yog kwv yees ntawm tsuas yog 55%, nrog rau kev siv tiag tiag yuav ncua mus txog rau 2027, thiab muaj peev xwm nce mus rau 30% tej zaum yuav tsis tshwm sim txog 2028.
Qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev cia siab no tau ncaj qha ua rau ob qho kev lag luam loj tshwm sim:
Teb Chaws Asmeskas "Rush to Stockpile" Refined Copper: Txhawm rau tiv thaiv cov nqi tariff yav tom ntej, Asmeskas cov neeg yuav khoom nrawm yuav los ntawm LME kev ua lag luam, ua rau cov tooj liab tsis tu ncua mus rau hauv COMEX warehouses thiab tsav nws cov khoom muag mus rau cov ntaub ntawv siab (txog 82,000 tonnes los ntawm nruab nrab{{6} Kaum Ob Hlis). Qhov no tau tsim kom muaj qhov tsis sib xws hauv cheeb tsam uas Asmeskas khaws cia ntawm tus nqi siab, nruj cov khoom siv rau cov cheeb tsam tsis yog{10}}US.
"Passive Inventory Drawdown" hauv Tsis yog- Asmeskas Kev Lag Luam: Cov neeg yuav khoom hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Asia ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov hlau vim yog Asmeskas kev yuav khoom. Txawm hais tias tag nrho LME cov khoom lag luam tau nce mus rau ib puag ncig 180,000 tonnes (qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2025), qhov tseeb muaj cov khoom siv dawb tseem nyob nruj, txhawb cov nqi siab thiab tsis hloov pauv.
"Txoj cai tsis paub tseeb tau dhau los ua tus nqi 'kev pov hwm'," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau tseg. "Txawm tias qhov kev txiav txim siab se tseem tab tom tos, tus nqi sib txawv ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab tsis yog - Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav nyob twj ywm, txhawb nqa tus nqi tooj liab zoo."
Widening Supply-Xav tau "Scissors Gap": Mine-Sab "Bottleneck" Tau Txais Kev Thov "Tshiab Cav"
Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb rau ib nrab ntawm - lub sij hawm tooj liab tus nqi sib sau ua ke nyob rau hauv qhov nyuaj ntawm "kev loj hlob < thov kev loj hlob," ib qho kev tsis sib haum xeeb yuav tsum tau tshaj tawm hauv 2026.
1. Kev Pab Cuam Tshuam: Mine Output ntsib qhov "Gap," Smelting Capacity Hampered los ntawm Scarce Feed
Limited Mine Supply Loj hlob:Ntiaj teb no tooj liab mine mov nyob rau hauv 2026 yog kwv yees kom nce los ntawm tsuas yog 540,000 tonnes (nce 2.3% xyoo-rau- xyoo), ho qis dua 5-xyoo keeb kwm kev loj hlob tus nqi nruab nrab (4.5%). Cov neeg tsim khoom loj xws li Chile thiab Peru ntsib cov teeb meem los ntawm kev poob qis ntawm cov ore qib thiab kev tawm tsam hauv zej zog, ua rau qeeb ntawm kev tso tawm cov peev txheej tshiab.
Tshaj Smelting Capacity:Lub peev xwm smelting thoob ntiaj teb tau npaj kom nthuav dav los ntawm 1.2 lab tonnes ntawm 2025-2026. Txawm li cas los xij, nruj raw khoom (tooj liab concentrate) cov khoom ua rau "tsis muaj peev xwm siv tau," nrog rau kev ua kom zoo tooj liab loj hlob tau kwv yees li 3 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua xyoo 2025.
Recycled Copper Offers Limited Relief:Txawm hais tias cov khoom siv tooj liab rov ua dua yuav tsum nce 290,000 tonnes xyoo-ntawm- xyoo, nws tsuas yog kwv yees li 15% ntawm cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb, tsis txaus los sau qhov sib txawv ntawm mined ntau lawm.
2. Kev Xav Tau: Qhov "Tshiab Lub Zog Hluav Taws Xob" yuav siv rau theem nruab nrab, A 1 lab tonne nce ntxiv tshwm sim
Lub koom haumKev kwv yees thoob ntiaj teb kev thov tooj liab yuav nce 1 lab tonnes hauv 2026, nrog rau cov neeg tsav tsheb tseem ceeb yog "Lub Hwj Chim Tshiab":
Grid Kev nqis peev:Kev ua tiav ntawm Tuam Tshoj "14th Tsib- Xyoo Plan" ultra- cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob siab thiab kev hloov kho kab sib chaws hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab Europe tau xav tias yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau loj hlob ntawm 300,000 tonnes rau kev xa hluav taws xob.
Fais Tsheb & Lub Zog Cia:Nrog rau kev muag khoom EV thoob ntiaj teb xav tias yuav dhau 25 lab units (nce 35% YoY) thiab kev siv tooj liab rau EV yog peb npaug ntawm lub tsheb ICE, ua ke nrog lub zog khaws cia kev loj hlob ntawm 50% ib xyoos ib zaug, ob txoj haujlwm no tau npaj los tsav 400,000 tonnes ntawm kev thov tooj liab ntxiv.
AI Data Centers:Ib lub chaw loj - teev cov ntaub ntawv tuaj yeem siv txog li 500 tonnes ntawm tooj liab. Nrog rau lub ntiaj teb AI xam kev nqis peev uas xav kom tshaj $ 200 nphom hauv 2026, qhov kev lag luam no tuaj yeem tsav ntxiv 300,000 tonnes ntawm kev thov.
"Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov los ntawm cov kev lag luam ib txwm muaj xws li kev tsim kho thiab cov khoom siv tau qeeb, kev loj hlob los ntawm kev lag luam tshiab yog ntau tshaj li txaus los cuam tshuam nws thiab tom qab ntawd qee qhov," tus thawj coj loj los ntawm tus thawj coj tooj liab tau tawm tswv yim. "Copper tab tom hloov los ntawm 'cyclical khoom' mus rau 'cov khoom loj hlob'."
"Ob chav Insurance" ntawm cov khoom muag thiab Macro Ib puag ncig: Cov Tshuag qis muab ib qho hauv pem teb, ib qho nyiaj tsis muaj zog ntxiv roj
Tshaj li cov khoom siv-xav kom nruj, cov khoom lag luam dynamics thiab macro ib puag ncig muab "kev nyab xeeb net" rau tus nqi tooj liab.
1. Cov Khoom Muag: Cov Khoom Muag Pom Zoo Tshaj Plaws, "Hidden" Inventories hauv "Short Supply"
Thaum lub ntiaj teb pom tooj liab cov khoom lag luam tau nce mus txog ib ncig ntawm 260,000 tonnes hauv 2025 (feem ntau hauv COMEX), "cov khoom ntiag tug zais" (cov tuam txhab khaws cia) hauv cov cheeb tsam uas tsis yog - Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau poob rau 5-xyoo qis. Ib tug tub luam tau qhia, "Lub sijhawm xa khoom xa tuaj rau cov neeg siv khoom nyob sab Europe tau txuas ntxiv los ntawm 4 lub lis piam mus rau 8 lub lis piam, qhia tias cov khoom siv tiag tiag nruj dua li cov ntaub ntawv qhia."
2. Macro: Tsis muaj zog duas + Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob txhawb nqa, ib qho Dual Tailwind
Tuam Tshoj txoj cai "Kev Loj Hlob ruaj khov":Tuam Tshoj txoj cai tswj hwm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag txoj cai yuav tsum txhawb nqa kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab kev nqis peev tshiab. Kev thov tooj liab hauv kev loj hlob hauv Suav teb yog kwv yees ntawm 4.5% rau 2026, siab dua qhov nruab nrab hauv ntiaj teb.
Qhov "Ib nrab-Tsev Sijhawm Scenario": Lub Hom Phiaj $11,400 hauv 2026, Muaj Peev Xwm Pullback hauv 2027
Synthesizing peb yam tseem ceeb ntawm txoj cai, muab khoom-xav tau, thiab macro tej yam kev mob,kev tshawb fawbqhia txog txoj kev muaj peev xwm tus nqi:
Ib nrab xyoo 2026:Nrog rau cov kev cia siab ntawm tus nqi nruab nrab thiab lub caij nyoog xav tau lub zog tshaj tawm -Suav Xyoo Tshiab, tus nqi tooj liab tuaj yeem tawg tshaj $ 11,400 / tonne, nyuaj rau qib $ 12,000.
Lub Ob Hlis 2026:Cov nqi yuav raug kho rau ntau ntawm $ 10,500- $ 11,000 / tonne yog tias siv cov nqi se lossis yog tias AI kev nqis peev qis qis.
2027:Raws li thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom siv tooj liab txhim kho nrog txoj haujlwm tshiab ramp-ups, nqaim cov khoom tsis txaus, cov nqi yuav thim rov qab mus rau ib puag ncig $ 10,750 / tonne (lub tsev haujlwm thawj qhov kev kwv yees rau xyoo ntawd).
Peb cov khoom lag luam
| Yam khoom | Khoom npe | Cov Qib Standard | Ntsiab Specifications (Tswj) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper Tubes / Cov kav dej | • Ncaj & Coiled Tubes • Tube tub yees • Capillary Tubes • Kub Exchanger Tubes |
C11000 (ETP tooj liab) C12200 (DHP Phosphorous tooj liab) C12000 (DLP Phosphorous Copper) TS EN 12735-1: CU-DHP JIS H3300: C1220, C1100 |
Txuj: ASTM B75, B88, B280, EN 12735 OD: 3mm - 300mm Phab ntsa Thickness: 0.3mm - 10mm Cov xwm txheej: Annealed (O), Hard (H) |
|
| Copper Sheets / Phaj | • Kub Rolled Phaj • Cov Ntawv Txias Rolled • Txiav- mus rau -Size Blanks |
C11000 (ETP tooj liab) C10200 (Oxygen-Dawb tooj liab) C26000 Cartridge tooj dag C70600 (90-10 CuNi) |
Txuj: ASTM B152, B465 Thickness: 0.5mm - 50mm (Plates: >3 hli) Dav: mus txog 1500mm Ntev: mus txog 4000mm los yog kev cai Cov xwm txheej: Rolled, annealed, zeb tiav |
|
| Copper Qws / Bars | • Hloov, Square, Hexagonal Rods • Copper Alloy Rods • Precision av Bars |
C11000 (ETP tooj liab) C36000 (Dawb-Txiav tooj dag) C26000 Cartridge tooj dag C10200 (Oxygen-Dawb tooj liab) C17200 (Beryllium tooj liab) |
Txuj: ASTM B187, B301, EN 12163, 12164 Txoj kab uas hla: 2mm - 200mm Ntev: Ncaj tuav mus txog 6m, coils muaj Cov xwm txheej: Kos, extruded, annealed |
|
| Tooj Hlau | • Tooj liab liab (Nruab / mos) • Enamelled (Magnet) Hlau • Stranded & Bunched Hlau • Braided Hlau & Flexibles |
C11000 (ETP tooj liab) C10200 (Oxygen-Dawb tooj liab) C10100 (C-NTAWM tooj liab) Qib: 1/2 Hard, 1/4 Hard, Mos |
Txuj: ASTM B1, B2, B3, IEC 60228 Txoj kab uas hla: 0.05mm - 12mm (liab qab) Conductivity: 100% IACS min. Ntim: Spools, coils, nruas |
|
| Copper Foils | • Rolled Strips (hauv Coils) • Nyias Foils • Connector Alloy Sawb |
C11000 (ETP tooj liab) C26000 Cartridge tooj dag C19210 (Phosphor Bronze, 1.0%) C26800 (Yaj Brass) |
Txuj: ASTM B152, B465, EN 1652 Thickness: 0.05mm - 3.0 hli (Strips),<0.05mm (Foil) Dav: 10mm - 600mm (qhov dav dav dav) Cov yam ntxwv: Hard (H), 1/2 Hard, Mos (O), dov temper |
Peb lub Hoobkas
Peb yog ib lub chaw tsim khoom tshwj xeeb nrog kev sib xyaw ua ke rau cov khoom siv tooj liab thiab tooj liab, nrog rau cov raj, pas nrig, tuav, daim hlau, cov ntawv txheeb, cov hlua, thiab cov xov hlau. Peb qhov chaw yog nruab nrog cov kab ntau lawm niaj hnub featuring extrusion presses, nruam casting tshuab, precision dov mills, kos duab lub rooj zaum, thiab tswj annealing furnaces, ua rau peb tswj tag nrho cov txheej txheem los ntawm raw khoom mus rau cov khoom tiav. Kev txhawb los ntawm ib qho hauv -lub tsev kuaj xyuas kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg zoo thiab ua raws li cov qauv thoob ntiaj teb (ASTM, EN, JIS), peb muab cov kev daws teeb meem, kev ntim khoom txhim khu kev qha, thiab kev xa tawm tau zoo los pab cov neeg siv khoom thoob ntiaj teb hauv HVAC&R, hluav taws xob, tsheb, thiab kev lag luam.
tooj liab khoom ntim
Peb ua tib zoo saib xyuas hauv kev ntim khoom kom ntseeg tau tias peb cov khoom siv tooj liab tuaj txog hauv qhov zoo. Cov ntim khoom txheem suav nrog cov dej noo- cov ntaub ntawv tiv taus, cov ntoo ruaj khov lossis cov pallets, thiab lub kaum sab xis tiv thaiv kom tsis txhob muaj kev puas tsuaj thaum caij tsheb. Rau cov khoom uas yuav tsum tau txhim kho kev tiv thaiv oxidation, xws li siab - purity tooj liab raj los yog finely tiav nto, peb kuj muabxaiv tau nitrogen-purged (inert gas) ntimthaum thov. Qhov kev pabcuam no ua rau txo qis oxidation ntawm qhov chaw nyob ntev -ntev shipping lossis cia, ua kom koj cov khoom tswj lawv qhov zoo tshaj plaws thaum tuaj txog.
